Washington, DC SREC Supply and Demand Analysis
How will Washington, DC’s SREC market respond now that higher SREC requirements have taken their full effect?
As of March 10, 2026, the higher SREC requirements mandated by the DC Local Solar Expansion Amendment Act of 2022 applies to all DC electricity sales.
The DC Local Solar Expansion Amendment Act of 2022 encouraged the construction of new solar systems by raising the annual percentages of electricity sales which come from solar. However, for three years after the act’s effective date of March 10, 2023, the increased yearly RPS requirements did not apply to electricity contracts signed before the effective date. Assessing the DC SREC market’s supply and demand from 2025 to 2027 shows the impact of fully changing to higher RPS requirements.
The enclosed supply and demand analysis projects market conditions changing from a slight oversupply to an undersupply of SRECs. Rising RPS requirements as grandfathering provisions end contribute to this change. For the DC SREC supply to keep up with growing requirements, the build rate will need to increase.
Current DC SREC Supply and Demand
DC’s combined SREC generation and banked SRECs are higher than the RPS requirements, so the market is currently slightly oversupplied. While the 2025 projected DC SREC requirement is 407,748 SRECs, projected SREC production is 339,345 and banked SREC supply from previous years is 96,904. We project that the 2025 DC SREC market will have a 28,501 SREC oversupply.
DC’s solar build rates have risen over the last year. The last 12-month (LTM) average build rate from January 2025 to December 2025 was 4.5 MW/month, an 8% increase year over year. While the last 6-month (LSM) average build rate increased sharply to 5.37 MW/month, this increase was driven in part by the installation of a small number of high-capacity systems. Using the last twelve month build rate as the basis for our analysis, we project an undersupplied market in 2026 and 2027.
Without the DC Local Solar Expansion Amendment Act of 2022, we project that the DC SREC market would have become increasingly oversupplied. The legislation was enacted to better achieve DC’s clean energy goals, ensuring that demand for DC SRECs kept up with the growing supply. In addition, this legislation directed a portion of the alternative compliance payment funds to rate-payer relief and energy affordability programs.
Future of the DC SREC Market
While DC’s SREC market is projected to become undersupplied in 2026 and 2027, this trend may shift if the build rate increases more rapidly. We will continue to monitor the impact of legislation and broader industry changes.
Please reach out to the Xpansiv® Managed Solutions™ team with comments or questions at brokerage@xpansiv.com. We will continue to provide new information when it becomes relevant, updating our analysis to support your decision-making.